# Monographs and textbooks

### Modeling and management of digitalization processes in conditions of uncertainty

Textbook. – M.: Publishing house "SCIENTIFIC LIBRARY", 2021. – 250 p.

ISBN 978-5-907497-06-1

The textbook is devoted to a new direction in measurement theory and intelligent data processing for modeling and digitalization of activities.

The methodology is based on the regularizing Bayesian approach (RBA) and Bayesian intelligent technologies implemented on its basis.

The textbook presents the theoretical foundations of modeling and digitalization in conditions of uncertainty, the methodology of RBA, a number of new measurement technologies and intelligent information processing. The Infoanalytic software package is proposed, which is a technological platform for the rapid development of applied information systems focused on functioning in conditions of uncertainty. The textbook provides examples of solving a number of typical practical tasks based on BITS for various fields of activity.

The textbook is intended for masters, postgraduates, teaching staff of higher educational institutions, as well as a wide range of specialists in the field of intelligent data processing BIG DATA, DATA SCIENCE, modeling and digitalization.

### Fundamentals of scaling theory in economics

Textbook. - M.: Publishing House "SCIENTIFIC LIBRARY", 2021. - 272 p.

ISBN 978-5-907497-05-4

Methods of scaling theory are studied in the disciplines of "Econometrics", "Modeling of economic and financial processes", "System Analysis in Economics" and other disciplines.

Scaling methodology is part of such modern scientific fields as DATA SCIENCE, BIG DATA, DATA MINING, NeuroNet, Measurement Science and other areas of artificial intelligence and modern measurement theory.

However, the modern theory of scaling, which includes methods of scaling and measuring quantitative indicators under conditions of uncertainty, has not yet been considered in these disciplines. While such scaling and evaluation conditions are typical for complex economic systems, when obtaining estimates and management decisions in economic problems. This tutorial fills this gap. To implement scaling in conditions of uncertainty, a new type of measuring scales is proposed, called scales with dynamic constraints. The textbook discusses the theoretical foundations and practical techniques for constructing such scales.

Practical scaling techniques and examples of scale construction in various economic applications in industry, financial problems, the banking sector, the social sphere, territorial development management, as well as new approaches to evaluating indicators in conditions of uncertainty are presented.

The textbook is intended for the preparation of bachelors and masters, it will also be useful for researchers, graduate students and specialists in the fields of measurement and intelligent information processing.

### Bayesian intellectual technologies in the tasks of modeling the distribution law under uncertainty

monograph / S. V. Prokopchina. M. – Publishing House “SCIENTIFIC LIBRARY”, 2020-292 p.

ISBN 978-5-907242-67-8

(The publication was carried out with the financial support of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research under the project No. 20-17-00007)

Monograph is devoted to methods and means of Bayesian mathematical statistics, in particular, the approximation of the probability density of random variables and random processes by distributions of the Pearson system, which covers the main types of unimodal distributions used in scientific and practical problems, is considered. A unique section is devoted to determining the distribution laws under conditions of significant uncertainty for processing small samples, inaccurate, incomplete, fuzzy information, and numerous different types of information flows. The methodological basis is a regularizing Bayesian approach focused on processing information (both data and knowledge) under conditions of uncertainty. The monograph provides a methodology and analytical dependencies for determining the metrological characteristics of the resulting solutions (accuracy, reliability, reliability, and others). All algorithms are provided with full metrological support of solutions. All analytical conclusions and methods are illustrated by examples of solving various applied problems. Tables of calculated data and block diagrams of algorithms are of practical use. The book is intended for researchers, teachers, students and postgraduates, as well as for specialists in the field of analytical data processing.

### Modeling the laws of distributions of random variables and processes in problems of econometrics

textbook / S.V. Prokopchina. – M .: Publishing house “SCIENTIFIC LIBRARY”, 2019.P. 260.

ISBN 978-5-907242-01-2

The manual discusses theoretical and practical issues of modeling the laws of distribution and estimation of the numerical characteristics of random variables and processes. The main attention is paid to the determination of the analytical form of the distribution law. As a system of approximating distributions, a system of Pearson curves was chosen that allows one to obtain analytical expressions for all known types of unimodal distributions. A unique aspect of the study guide is the inclusion of methods and means of determining the analytical form of the distribution law for small samples under conditions of significant uncertainty. The regularizing Bayesian approach is considered as the main methodology. Examples of determining the analytical form of distribution laws for econometric problems and other applications are given. The manual is intended for theoretical and practical training in the disciplines “Modeling of economic and financial processes”, “Econometrics”, “Business Informatics”.

### Methods and tools of the digital economy based on cognitive networks and intelligent workplaces of specialists

textbook / S. V. Prokopchina. – M.: Publishing house "SCIENTIFIC LIBRARY", 2019 – 268 p.

ISBN 978-5-907242-02-9

The textbook proposes the concept of RBA and BII (soft measurements) as one of the promising areas for creating a methodological framework and technological base for the digital economy. Within the framework of this concept, soft measurements are implemented on the basis of the regularizing Bayesian approach (RBA) and Bayesian intelligent technologies (BIT). A generalized equation of soft measurements based on RBA is given. The basic principles and properties of soft measurements are formulated, which are important for solving practical problems of the digital economy. Examples of developed application systems focused on functioning in conditions of information uncertainty in the tasks of the digital economy are given. The assessment of the readiness of Russian regions to implement methods and means of the digital economy is given. The textbook is intended for students, masters and postgraduates in the following specialties: business analytics in management, business informatics, modeling of economic and financial processes, and other specialties related to the use of modern mathematics of information and communication technologies. The book will also be useful for a wide range of teachers, researchers and specialists.

### Modeling of socio-economic systems under conditions of uncertainty

textbook – workshop, 2nd edition / Prokopchina S. V., Shcherbakov G. A., Efimov Yu. V.; under. ed. G. A. Shcherbakova. – M .: Publishing house “SCIENTIFIC LIBRARY”, 2019. – 508 p.

ISBN 978-5-907242-40-1

Modern economic systems are uniquely complex objects. They function and develop under the influence of various environmental factors and change in time and space in a way specific to each of these systems. The dynamics of their behavior is difficult to predict, and the actual data to describe it, as a rule, is insufficient. These data are incomplete, inaccurate and of different types, which generally leads to a situation of uncertainty. At the same time, practically demanded models of economic systems should adequately reflect the properties and relationships of the simulated objects. For this reason, for their effective modeling, it is necessary to apply methods focused on working under conditions of uncertainty. This tutorial is devoted to possible solutions to the above tasks. It is intended not only for the reader interested in the theory of modeling economic systems, but also is an entertaining workshop containing examples of the application of modern economic and mathematical methods in solving analytical and predictive problems in various areas of the real economy. The main attention is paid to the regularizing Bayesian approach (RBA), which, since the 80s of the last century, has been successfully used to solve a wide range of technical and socio-economic problems. The workshop provides both the theoretical foundations of RBA and examples of its application for modeling economic systems under conditions of uncertainty. The manual is equipped with self-study questions and practical tasks and can be useful for both researchers, teachers, graduate students and students of higher educational institutions, as well as specialists in the field of system modeling and management of complex national economic facilities and complexes.

### Tools for assessing and ensuring the sustainable development of Russian economic sectors

monograph – Moscow : Limited Liability Company "Scientific Publishing Center INFRA-M", 2018. – 174 p. – (Scientific thought).

ISBN 978-5-16-013073-6

The monograph presents the results of a scientific study of the problems of sustainable development of sectors of the Russian economy. Tools for multi-criteria assessment of sustainable development are proposed, directions for improving institutional mechanisms that allow implementing structural policy and minimizing economic risks are developed. The provisions of the dynamic stability of industries and industry complexes (according to OKVED) are substantiated, the functional components of the model of sustainable development of the branches of the Russian economy are determined. The monograph was prepared based on the results of research within the framework of the State Assignment of the Financial University. The monograph is recommended to specialists in the field of state and regional management, strategic economic management and assessment of the sustainability of industry development, researchers, graduate students, undergraduates.

### Methods and tools for modeling the distribution law under uncertainty

monograph / S. V. Prokopchina. M. – Publishing House “SCIENTIFIC LIBRARY”, 2018, – 252 p.

ISBN 978-5-6040895-9-0

The following main points are put forward and defended in the monograph. The approximation of the probability density of a random variable or a stationary ergodic random process should be performed with a given accuracy and reliability, in accordance with a priori and a posteriori information about the type of probability density under study. The algorithm for approximating the probability density developed on the basis of the Bayesian decision rule meets the set requirements. To ensure the specified accuracy and reliability of probability density approximation when organizing the approximation process by means of electronic digital computers and GVC, the values of their main technical characteristics, the sample size, the width of the differential corridor of the histogram, the number of NCP digits must be selected based on their required accuracy of probability density approximation, according to the dependencies obtained in the work, and in accordance with the data in the with recommendations.

### Soft Measurements and Computing. Volume V

monograph / ed. Doctor of Technical Sciences, prof. S.V. Prokopchinoy. – M .: Publishing House “SCIENTIFIC LIBRARY”, 2019 – 616 p.

ISBN 978-5-6042213-9-6

The methods and means of intellectual information processing, models and their applications, information technologies in the design and manufacture of devices and control systems, multidimensional estimation of complex objects, a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of regional systems in the face of uncertainty based on a regularizing Bayesian approach, distributed and modular computing methods are considered. The monograph is intended for researchers, graduate students, students and other specialists working in the field of soft computing and measurement, in the field of creating methods and means of artificial intelligence.

### Soft Measurements and Computing. Volume IV

under the editorship of Doctor of Technical Sciences, prof. S.V. Prokopchinoy. – M .: Publishing House “SCIENTIFIC LIBRARY”, 2018. – 342 p.

ISBN 978-5-907242-44-9

Socio-economic ecosystems are considered in the context of dual space-time analysis, system economics, economic cybernetics, soft measurements, system economics: in search of a unified platform for farming, management organization, development of economic theory. The innovative development of Russia is analyzed: philosophical analysis, socio-humanitarian technologies for assembling entities in self-developing polysubject environments, criteria for evaluating innovations in electronic culture. Particular attention is paid to energy management metrics, models and methodologies of sustainable development of enterprises. The monograph is intended for researchers, graduate students, students and other specialists working in the field of soft computing and measurement, in the field of creating methods and means of artificial intelligence.

### Soft Measurements and Computing. Volume III

monograph / ed. Doctor of Technical Sciences, prof. S.V. Prokopchinoy. – M .: Publishing House “SCIENTIFIC LIBRARY”, 2017. – 300 p.

ISBN 978-5-9500487-3-9

We consider Bayesian networks, related models and their applications, information technologies in the design and manufacture of devices and control systems (application of soft computing in industry), multidimensional object evaluation, a comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of regional projects in the face of uncertainty, as well as the application of a regularizing Bayesian approach to assess and improve the sustainability of enterprises, the Monograph is intended for researchers, graduate students, students and other specialists working in the field of soft computing and measurement, in the field of creating methods and means of artificial intelligence.

### Soft Measurements and Computing. Volume II

monograph / ed. S.V. Prokopchinoy. – M .: Publishing House “SCIENTIFIC LIBRARY”, 2017 – 416 p.

ISBN 978-5-9909931-9-8

The application of fuzzy sets and Soft Computing in economics and finance, a fuzzy logical system of balanced indicators and an assessment of economic risk, net present income and the internal rate of return of cash flows with vaguely defined payments are considered I. In addition, soft technologies of rationing at industrial enterprises in conditions of uncertainty, the interaction of cycles of various durations in the process of economic development, problems of economic management in conditions of polycyclicity and soft measurements and Soft Computing in modeling the state of complex objects based on expert knowledge are analyzed. The monograph is intended for researchers, postgraduates, students and other specialists working in the field of soft computing and measurements, in the field of creating methods and means of artificial intelligence.

### Soft Measurements and Computing. Volume I

monograph / ed. prof. S.V. Prokopchinoy. – M .: Publishing House “SCIENTIFIC LIBRARY”, 2017 – 490 p.

ISBN 978-5-9909931-7-4

Soft approaches to measurement and management of complex systems, a regularizing Bayesian approach, a theoretical path from fuzzy sets to soft estimates and synergetic artificial intelligence are considered, methods for constructing granular logical values and structures, modeling opinions and assessments of intelligent agents are analyzed: from four-digit systems of modalities to non-classical measures and fuzzy distributions. The theory of entropy potentials is considered. the state, prospects of development and practical application, methodology of cognitive visualization of multidimensional data, fuzzy methods of self-organization of information systems, methods of improving the efficiency of genetic algorithms, general concept and approach to the construction of distributed self-organizing information systems, Bayesian networks, related models and their applications. The monograph is intended for researchers, postgraduates, students and other specialists working in the field of soft computing and measurements, in the field of creating methods and tools of artificial intelligence.

### Management in conditions of uncertainty

monograph. – St. Petersburg: Publishing house of SPbSETU "LETI", 2014 – 304 p.

ISBN 978-5-7629-1499-4

The monograph presents methods and tools for solving management problems in conditions of significant uncertainty. The experience of their practical use is also considered. This scientific publication is intended for specialists in the field of management, artificial intelligence, applied areas related to solving modern management problems, for researchers, teachers of higher educational institutions, graduate students, students of relevant specialties.